Takeaway: at 2.00%, the guarantee earns about 19% more than current fees on the same units. At 1.68%, it earns the same as today.
Break-even table, guarantee rate up to 3.00%
| Guarantee rate | Guarantee fees on these units ($/yr) | vs current fees on these units ($522,606/yr) | vs 1.00% flat ($483,488/yr) | vs 1.50% flat ($725,233/yr) | Effective take rate (% of all revenue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50% | $467,526 | -$55,080 | -$15,962 | -$257,707 | 0.97% |
| 1.55%Break-even: 1.00% flat | $483,488 | -$39,118 | $0 | -$241,745 | 1.00% |
| 1.68%Break-even: current fees | $522,606 | $0 | +$39,118 | -$202,627 | 1.08% |
| 1.75% | $545,447 | +$22,841 | +$61,959 | -$179,786 | 1.13% |
| 2.00%Pitch | $623,368 | +$100,762 | +$139,880 | -$101,865 | 1.29% |
| 2.25% | $701,289 | +$178,683 | +$217,801 | -$23,944 | 1.45% |
| 2.33%Break-even: 1.50% flat | $725,233 | +$202,627 | +$241,745 | $0 | 1.50% |
| 2.50% | $779,210 | +$256,604 | +$295,722 | +$53,977 | 1.61% |
| 2.75% | $857,131 | +$334,525 | +$373,643 | +$131,898 | 1.77% |
| 3.00% | $935,052 | +$412,446 | +$451,564 | +$209,819 | 1.93% |
Annual guarantee fees = rate x $31,168,400 (annual revenue on beating unit-months). Effective take rate = fees / $48,348,833 (all annual revenue). All dollar figures are annual. Highlighted rows are break-evens: 1.55% vs 1.00% flat, 1.68% vs current contracts (tenured units), 2.33% vs 1.50% flat.
Recommendation
At 2.00%, annual fees on these units are $623,368: +$100,762 vs current contracts (tenured units) and +$139,880 vs 1.00% flat. At the 1.90% floor: $592,200, still +$69,594. Below about 1.70%, the guarantee earns less than current fees on these units (break-even 1.68%).
Seasonality
Winter months (Oct to Jan) are the weakest vs current contracts (tenured units), because per-unit fees hold up when revenue drops while the guarantee shrinks with revenue. Vs a 1.00% flat fee, every month clears at 2.00%: monthly break-evens run 1.31% to 1.89%.
Model your own inputs: benchmark, guarantee rate, tolerance band, cohort bias and month-by-month view.
Caveats. Provisional, book-level aggregates. The matched cohort is down 11.6% YoY, 10 to 15 points weaker than the book cohort tool, and this gap is unreconciled. If the cohort is biased low, the true beat rate is higher and the break-evens are lower. Tenured units only (11,016 unit-months with a zero prior-year month excluded). Revenue is Pacer-reported rental revenue, not owner payout. Data window: Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 check-in months.